I have also come up with ideas where those passenger tracks could be used for local freight switching by a shortline railroad, which is something else the big freight railroads have largely given up on along their mainlines. This would actually go back to the concept of the steam road with paralleling interurban - long-haul vs. Toyota is introducing a plug-in hybrid with next-generation lithium-ion batteries in Japan, the U. PetroAlgae, a biodiesel startup in Melbourne, Fla. It hopes to use the chambers to discover the optimal environment for growing algae and then to create it on an industrial.
Vincent Tchenguiz, the property and clean-energy billionaire investor, is in talks with Indian conglomerate Tata about investing. The fund would invest in clean-energy projects in India and develop alternative technologies to replace fossil fuels. Regarding the news about Toyota's plug-in hybrid plans, this related article indicates that Toyota's view is that oil production will peak in the near future. Now the critical thing here is whether they have missed our a 'present', so that it should read 'present lithium ion batteries'. All I can think of that might fit the bill would be zinc batteries as they don't have to carry their oxygen, or maybe boron as Mr Cowan advocates: If they actually should have said 'present' then silicon nanotubes would seem likeliest: I think they are referring to Lithium Polymer batteries.
To be honest, I don't know what the difference is, but they are apparently two different things. Panasonic is making the current gen. They are staying mum on the new battery. Probably quite a ways off. It won't be available to the public in the US or Europe until or at the earliest. Prices are going down. This is using lead-acid batteries. Presumably better batteries will provide more range but fundamentally the Prius still weighs lb.
That's just too heavy. I think the plug-in Prius will take just baby steps, maybe 15 or 20 all-electric miles, but not much more. It's just too heavy and the better battery chemistries are also much more expensive. In any case, it's too late. The only options left, in my view, are hard landing or incredibly hard landing. How batteries react to deep discharge varies according to the chemistry used.
In any case, capacitors have been successfully used to prevent deep discharge and increase life at reasonable cost: UltraBattery combines a supercapacitor and a lead acid battery. Firefly battery technology can also do the job at around twice the price of conventional lead-acid, far cheaper than lithium and with good deep discharge characteristics: I would however agree that within the time available to us there is little possibility that a smooth changeover will be made to hybrid or EV vehicles.
It will though help a lot. At the moment the hybrid and EV technology is trying to establish itself against a background of expectations set when gas was cheap. That is a tough target to hit, and at comparable build costs will likely not be achievable before around A commuter EV capable of miles can though be built at reasonable cost: NK city electric car ready for showrooms.
They can't be ramped fast enough to keep anything like BAU though, but the same battery technology will allow the build of all sorts of electric bikes and trikes. Emergency service vehicles should also be able to switch to hybrids. On a different note, has anyone got more information on solid-state lithium batteries? I could not find anything much by googling. The metal battery is likely zinc-air, here is some information on this technology: On slide 29 it shows that Toyota's interest in "next generation" batteries lies with "solid-state", "metal-air", and "Sakichi" batteries.
The presentation is very interesting - it highlights Toyota's wide-ranging efforts to improve the efficiency of its vehicles. The company appears to be looking at any and all options. A summary of Toyota's initiatives can also be found in this press release. Does anyone what a "Sakichi" battery is? I see the oval on slide 29, but no clue as to what this might be. Spacecraft have used nuclear batteries for a long time - And they don't even need recharging? Just replace the battery once a year or , kilometers which ever comes first?
Considering our massive hangup about the possibility of terrorists getting ahold of material for a dirty bomb, you ain't gonna see it. Then there is price. That might be fine for powering a hundred million dollar satelite, but as a prectical energy source nada. Batteries are supposed to be energy storage mechanisms in any case, these nuclear "batteries" are not batteries, you cannot plug them in to charge them up.
Nor can you throttle the rate of radioactive decay. Its lifetime is totally independent of whether you actually use the output. Toyota has sold 1 million Priuses in the past decade. So a couple years from now, Toyota plans to be selling as many hybrids annually as they've sold Priuses in the past 10 years. The last I read on such things is that they plan on offering hybrid versions on all of their vehicles. I would also speculate that likely many vehicles will migrate towards hybrid only, or make the hybrid verion the luxury trim.
Dave ol bean, you are a marvel. I love the way you string together all these just around the corner miraculous new technologies to put peak oil in proper perspective and that is I will hazard a guess that at the rate you are posting that within 30 years, give or take, Leanan will no longer be necessary on TOD. You will have totally replaced any possible board monitor along with readers and other posters, with a cornucopia of just around the corner fixes for oil depletion and a crashing world economy.
Hey, TOD don't need no stinkin' reality, we got Dave. Keep up the flow rate What on earth do you mean River? Surely there'll be plugin hybrid tractors, combine harvesters and trucks soon too? Not to mention plugin hybrid fertilizer, asphalt, aeroplanes, ships and plastics? I heard a bunch of people on the train this morning talking in glowing techno-cornucopian terms about the plugin cars we'll all soon be driving.
For every objection there's another "don't worry, they'll fix that with " answer. It seems to be such a widely distributed thought pattern: Unless peak oil doesn't happen until , this schedule is pathetically to slow to make a meaningful impact. Owner told me they are 5 mo. We got on the wait list just so I'll know when they hit. In spite of all there are still plenty of cars and the background music is gasoline numbers changers out every morning. I'm still holding my breath that this car will be successful. I know people that have driven a prototype and said it was incredible. A Hybrid with no Transmission…..
But now Volvo has come up with an ingenious idea for Hybrid cars. Eliminate the Transmission altogether! Well that was simple enough…but wait…. Ahh…very good young grasshopper. Millions of people in asia ride around on motorcyles - it might catch on with westerners too once high oil prices collide with their increasingly third world wages.
Hub motors are not a new idea, and Volvo didn't come up with it. They go back to at least when Ferdinand Porsche put them in what became an early hybrid vehicle. Hi Rethin, Could you elaborate? I felt they could lead to handling problems despite the fact that they lowered the center of gravity. They may be useful on rail vehicles though. I'm not automotive engineer, so take this with a bit of though.
But my understanding is this. They are not the next big thing. They are an old idea Porsche. The reason they are not used is because of un-sprung weight. That is weight that is not supported by the suspension. This leads to very big handling problems. Engineers like the idea because hub motors are so much more efficient. I believe there is an all electric mini running around out there with 4 motors in the wheels.
In fact, hobbyists have been building electric cars without transmissions for decades. Porsche built a car with wheel motors in It's definitely the way things are headed, but the catch is that even an electric motor has its torque limits. But a directly-geared motor or wheel motor must actually put out that This is not a bad thing, because ideally that same motor will be used for regenerative braking - and then all that torque goes into reverse to save your life. But it means wheel motors must be more powerful and heavier, and that becomes unsprung weight, which is a bad thing.
Mitsubishi, which is far closer to putting an electric into production than Volvo, has come up with a high-speed variant of its MIEV prototype which has the regular electric motor with halfshafts in the rear, and newly added wheel motors in the front. Not sure of the intent of this, but perhaps the more expensive wheel motors are expected to be used in sportier electrics.
You can have a transmission on an electric vehicle if you like, but there's really little advantage to it. I gave the Oil Drum a nice mention in my MoneyandMarkets. Many thanks to Jeffrey Brown and others for all their fine work. Friday's dramatic spike up was the biggest one-day move EVER. I have no affection for what's going on right now. Cold weather affected the crops. The music affected him deeply. Mervyn King today called for an improved system of financial stability for Britain as he admitted that prolonged turmoil in the. Concerns are mounting that Barratt will be forced to write down hundreds of millions of pounds from its land holdings over the next three weeks as it is forced to reappraise with auditors the value of its sales sites in time for its June 30 financial year-end.
That in turn could force Barratt closer to breaching loan-to-value covenants on its bank borrowings. There is quite a contrast to Switzerland. Total UK passenger car mileage was still rising at the start of last year. I'd guess the decline in mileage is accelerating Peak Mileage? Van mileage was up last year people buying more stuff online, perhaps. Having said that, I've just been commissioned to write a page guide to fuel-efficient driving for a 30,employee business.
They're not even trying to disguise it as a "green guide" to cutting CO2. A corner is being turned. In addition, April deliveries were probably higher as Easter occurred in April, rather than in March. I would be grateful if you publish this comment in the benefit of your readers. Diesel use is up in the US, while gasoline use is down. I think it is important to distinguish between the two, because they have very different demand characteristics these days. One of the interesting things about social norm compliance, however, is that there is tremendous individual variation.
Sure enough, the people with high Machiavellism scores gave less money away when there was no punishment threat and were best at avoiding punishment when the threat of punishment was present. Therefore, these individuals earned the most money overall. That rather sociopathic group would seem to include our rulers by definition. It would seem then to be a prerequisite of a liveable society to ensure that heavy punishment follows wrongdoing.
Therefore it is not a waste of resources to press for inditement, or to pursue those who authorise torture, or pursue those who have manipulated the system to grab vast wealth, in short pushed to the head of the queue, but a necessary part of the maintenance of a civil society.
For those in the UK, we need to pursue the MP's who have abused expenses, and those who ordered records burnt. The answer to that is simple. Any funds which cannot be properly accounted for should be returned, and banging on about retrospective legislation is nonsense, as all they would need is retrospective common sense. The theory of the dominant culture is that the sociopathic psychopathic individuals will overwhelm those less aggressive individuals in social systems. That is the case with our government, business, finacial and justice systems which are run by and for psychotics who spend little time considereing the unforseen impacts of their short-sighted actions.
Will this trend subside with the rise of peak oil and the long emergecy? Peak oil will be a reverse revolution but as in any revolution there will be opportunities. Psychopathic personalities will be there to harvest those opportunites as well. I saw a little boy, perhaps ten years old, driving a huge carthorse along a narrow path, whipping it whenever it tried to turn.
It struck me that if only such animals became aware of their strength we should have no power over them, and that men exploit animals in much the same way as the rich exploit the proletariat. George Orwell - Animal Farm. You are not alone in projecting this. I know it is a fear frequently expressed by our friend DaveMart when we start talking about ending growth economics as well.
My suspicion, though, is that what is really feared is that a society will arise that does not share the values of the person speaking. Consider what a totalitarian regime is. Working from the route of the word, "total," the idea is that the regime at least attempts to controls the totality of the society. Those of us who were raised on western belief in "democracy," "free will," "self-determinism" and "freedom" generally see in this the attempt to control our thoughts and actions.
What we fail to see is that our experienced freedom is really in a very small range of thought and action. Indeed, I would argue that the single greatest and most effective totalitarian system ever created is the one we currently live in. It has been totalized most deeply in the societies where it was born but none more deeply than the U. It has so totalized our experience of the world that we don't even recognize it as such, for we speak in it's metaphors without even recognizing them as such not "sold" on that idea yet? Try this thought experiment.
What would you need to do to completely separate yourself from this totalizing system? Would you have to buy some land to grow your own food? How do you do that without participating in that system? Going to become a scavenger? While the most adept "street people" certainly have a freer existence than most, they require the rest of us to remain in place in order to create the "garbage" that they live off. How about some hunting and gathering? Not too many places on the planet where you'd be allowed to carry this out and those that are left are rapidly disappearing.
Choose your path and follow the logic. The reality is that we already live in a totalitarian society - we just don't recognize it because we've been "drinking the kool-aid" since birth. What I meant to communicate is the prediction that rather than a cash starved bankrupt federal government giving way to more localized and egalitarian societies that instead the feds will ramp up repressive activities to ensure that the rich continue to hold the means of production.
Wait for the next security threat that they have to protect us from. I have thought through scenarios where I could unhook from this "totalizing system" and short of leaving the country and learning how to live in a tree I don't know how to be free of it. But I do recognize my dependency.
I believe it is necessary to protect your country from your government" Edward Abbey. I'm not quite sure who you mean when you refer to "the feds. But the bureaucracy is only part of what comprises the institutional apparatus we call our government. There is also the legal system and courts, the financial sovereignty, the land owned, and let's not forget the military. So, rather than identify "the Feds" as the locus of the decision to protect wealth at the expense of the rest of us, look to the groups within our society who control the institutional apparatus.
It has always been this way the great "democracy" lie with the possible exception of a few scattered years at the start of the republic. Hamilton got his hands on the thing, it has been increasingly codified into the very structure of the institution. Of course, not all the elite speak with one voice and the history of our politics has been the competition between various groups within the elite to control the governmental apparatus. But you are almost certainly warranted in your assumption that they will "close ranks" and use whatever means they can to maintain their privileged position.
Expect, also, that they will use other institutions available to them, most especially the newest big player in the power game, the corporation. The way the rich have gotten around this is pretty simple, money. They buy off a portion of the underclasses - welcome to the technocratic class. One reason I strongly advocate micro systems over maintaining and transforming the current system is the potential to then decouple from the BAU paradigm. If the populace is not dependent upon the government for their survival, and are not feeding the beast with income taxes, I could see a reasonable chance for transformation.
But you'd have to have widespread change and passive resistance. So your post in it's self is just hewing to the Totalitarian line. Congratulations, you have just met the recursiveness of language and hence it's meaninglessness. Many thanks to Goedel. I'm not sure I see your point - but I would grant you that the current totalizing system allows for a substantial amount of apparently subversive sub cultures e. As for the recursiveness of language signifying it's meaninglessness, you're going to have to go some distance to convince me that is the correct conclusion.
I would see it's recursiveness as defining it's meaningfulness. Simply rejecting a correspondence theory of truth does not equate to a complete un-tethering of language from meaning. You are using language to talk about language. According to Kurt Goedel you can't prove it's consistency, hence it is fundamentally meaningless as is what I just typed. Godel proved that you can make self-referential statements that are undecidable, e. Bob - exactly what I told Hank in my response to him. But, he apparently is more interested in playing language games then actually discussing language. Anyone seriously interested in the subject understands that meaning is attributed to language, and that is what allows us to communicate.
But Hank apparently doesn't think we are communicating. Is the word "meaningful" included? There's no useful meta-language to talk about it anyway. Sorry for the distraction. Most people use totalitarianism and authoritarianism interchangeably. Personally, I believe the decentralization that accompanies peak oil will mean a reduction of totalitarianism, just as it is going to mean a reduction in globalization. I think we'll see much more of it in the future as social cohesion breaks down. As the social contract breaks down, force will increasingly be used increasingly ineffectively in an attempt to maintain social cohesion.
Shargas - for the most part I agree however IMO as things unravel the government will move into triage government and military, police and spying activities will remain funded. Stone walls do not a prison make, Nor iron bars a cage; Minds innocent and quiet take That for an hermitage; If I have freedom in my love And in my soul am free, Angels alone, that soar above, Enjoy such liberty.
Just a verse from a poem I read this morning. It is of course easy to believe when one is outside of prison that one is free but I think personal happiness makes one free beyond any political or economic system. The king or TPTB must be wise to try to maintain a maximum happiness in society.
Lacking this people will seek true happiness in relationships despite any barriers even under worst dictaorships. Anyone knowledgeable to say whether an attack on Iran would be do-able without an agreement in place to use Iraqi bases?
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The statement that they want an agreement by July shows pretty clearly what they are aiming at. Let's hope the Iraqui's manage to put a spoke in the neo-cons wheel. Shia nativist-nationalist groups such as the Sadrists and Fadhila have no interest in a war with Iran, and have made this explicit at various points. Al the talk about the SOFA wish-list is fantasy, just like the oil law, which you may dimly recall went nowhere. Well, we already have military bases in Iraq; they just haven't yet been made officially permanent.
On the presumption that an attack on Iran would be confined to an attack from the air, I don't see that anything the Iraqi government could say or do would be able to stop such an attack from taking place. Also, a large part of an air attack on Iran would not necessarily have to involve US planes launched from Iraqi. We have substantial naval assets in the area, as well as the base at Diego Garcia and other possible launch points. Having said that, launching an air attack on Iran from Iraq even if only part of the attack comes from Iraq would not be without serious repercussions, to put it mildly.
One might reasonably expect Sadr's Mahdi Army to go into full-scale guerilla warfare against the US forces, and I doubt the present Iraqi government such as it is would last more than a week after the attack. So, while the US could physically launch an air attack on Iran from Iraq, there would be hell to pay come the day after.
It's a recipe for chaos.
Looks like we might have the makings of a long hot summer. I can't get rid of this mental image of Chaney playing golf with some of his wealthy well-connected chums. One of them casually asks him if he thinks short-term oil futures might be good to get into. With a wink, a nod, and a nudge, Chaney says with a straight face that he really doesn't know. First you reorganise the oil futures market in order to stabilise price. Then you attack Iran.
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Or you do it the other way around, which would leave a brief window of opportunity for the better informed to reap their benefits. Wouldn't that be funny if the thing they finally busted Cheney for was insider trading for tipping off his buddies about the upcoming war. I mean not Ha Ha funny, but funny. Let's strip off this fig-leaf of moral correctness and confess our motives and get on with the business of pillaging and raping.
We now have 2 stripers in the Air Force controlling drone aircraft that fly over primitive villages looking for "suspects". I wonder how connected these kids are to the death and suffering they inflict with their toggles. The bonus for the government is that these genuises come into the military already knowing how to murder efficiently having played countless hours of Grand Theft Auto prior to enlistment.
If you think GTA teaches how to murder with efficiency, you've obviously never played the game. For the training of efficient murder, there are much better games for that task. As a whole, video games teach people how to make good pawn soldiers, but not soldiers. These games have you "respawn" the second you die, encouraging reckless and fearless attacks. I prefer games that punish you heartily if you die, by making you go back to square 1. It encourages you to think tactically. Airstrikes, certainly, without Iraq bases.
Effectiveness of those airstrikes depends on the objective, and is another matter entirely. Full-scale ground invasion, not realistic with today's military and certainly not wise in any even, just my opinion. A ground invasion from Iraq is outright stupid if your goal is to get to Tehran, because there are huge terrain issues and plenty of room for effective defense-in-depth.
So I'm not sure that Iraqi bases are really that important from that perspective. However, if your goal is to capture Khuzestan where most of their oil is, and largely in the flat plain bordering southern Iraq , then this is doable. This could easily be under the cover of controlling the region where the Iranians are staging their support to Iraqi resistance.
The ground scenario most frequently advanced and not requiring bases in Iraq is using Azerbaijan as a leapfrog point for following the coastal plain of the black sea down to near Tehran, then only a single set of mountains to pass to get to the capital. This is also stupid--if the goal is regime change, the last thing you want is to get embroiled in urban combat in another city the size of Baghdad.
Finally, any option must be considered in light of our ability to prevent Iran from shutting down the Strait of Hormuz. Without occupying and controlling sufficient land north of the Strait, we probably don't have the capacity to prevent them from shutting it down--their ability to use small boat swarms, mobile ASCMs, shore-based artillery, etc.
So, for what it's worth, I don't see any viable options to confront Iran militarily. We could significantly delay their nuclear program through airstrikes, but I don't know if the consequences re: I don't think we have the groundwork in place to affect regime change without occupying the country, and we certainly don't have the capability to do that. That said, standard disclaimer: I didn't think they were stupid enough to actually invade Iraq, either, so in August I booked a trip to Hawaii for December By December I was sitting in a tent in the desert making plans.
I'd see their plans as centring on air strikes against nuclear capability and taking Khuzestan. Stupid, yup, but that is basically an operational requirement. Sack anyone who says that the mountainous terrain north of the straights will be a problem on trumped-up charges, and employ the same guys who did not see a need for 'boots on the ground' after the invasion of Iraq.
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Thanks for the insights. The US unilaterally attacked the soverign nation of Iraq and to my knowledge there was no 'written agreement' between Iraq and the US to allow that action. How many carriers do we have floating around the Persian gulf? They can launch a sea attack take out "suspected" sites as well as ground their primitive Air Force, their PT boats and navy would be wiped out in minutes not hours.
If there is no full scale invasion how long will the Iranians want to keep the fight going with a superpower that can easily crush them militarily? Don't be too sure about how this will go. I don't have a link handy, but some years back the Navy was running a Persian Gulf war game and made the mistake of having a retired Marine general run the Iranian team. He figured out how to launch an all-out attack using the PT boats and Iran's imported anti-ship missiles and was credited with blowing up a carrier - which in real life would have been nuclear.
In a sure sign that there's a serious problem with our military, the Navy responded by changing the rules of the war game to make carriers magically off-limits. Since then, the missiles have improved more than the carriers. We're in another weapons revolution, like the carrier revolution that had to wait from to to prove it had already happened. The Russians and Chinese are on their 3rd generation of anti-ship missiles since the Iraq War began and I've lost track of the nicknames. But the Sunburns from a couple of years ago would probably be bad enough if you could launch a hundred.
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I thought the biggest downside to attacking Iran is that Russia will jump in to help the Iranians. Or am I mixing up my doomsday predictions again? I think most people look at it as an airpower problem, but in reality it's more of a "time critical targeting" problem. Our carriers in the Persian Gulf aren't really the critical point--they do have a lot of airpower in an abstract sense, but nowhere near the kind of ability to strike mobile targets that will be needed.
The Navy won't be marginalized, but their ship and sub-launched cruise missiles will be their main game. It took a lot of reachback manpower--we really couldn't have done many of these at once. This will be the key with an air campaign against Iran--the ability to sorry, devolving into Air Force speak here find, fix, target, track, engage, and assess highly mobile Iranian targets.
The Iranians have essentially three critical assets that can shut down the Strait of Hormuz: What they'll do, as it becomes clear that hostilities are imminent or immediately after they begin , is to begin to move these assets among thousands of prepared and semi-prepared sites every few hours. This means that we'll need to scour these known sites and look for unknown ones , identify and prioritize targets at these sites, targeteer and weaponeer these targets, and get them to strike aircraft.
Here's the sticking point--that whole cycle, including the time it takes to re-route planes already in the air or get planes overhead--must be completed before the targets move, which can be as often as every hour. That's a very, very difficult task. It can certainly be done, but we just don't have the capability to do it under those time constraints against more than a few targets at a time. If Iran only had of these mobile targets, then it might be doable.
They have a lot more than that, and I really don't know if we'll be able to deal with them. If they keep just 2 or 3 ASCM launcher teams operational, or if they keep just one or two of the right shore artillery teams operational, they will be able to effectively close the Strait. Not to mention the small boat swarming tactics mentioned in a response below , mines, midget subs, etc. Sure, you'll still be able to get 9 out of 10 ships through, but that isn't acceptable if that 10th ship is a US navy vessel or an oil tanker. Sorrounded by water, with populous nations to our north and west who, while not seriously contemplating an invasion imo in BAU, might decide their citizens need more room in a Post-Peak world.
So we're buying F's, and, because the previous government was so This would be no problem if the F had anything like the range, throw-weight, or endurance of the F, but it doesn't. Neither does it have the endurance, radar, or weapons that of the Sukhoi fighters that nations around us are buying. In my spare time, I'm working on something that I can present to my local MP that will 'keep the lights on' in nearby countries, and hopefully convince the locals to stay put even though they can't afford food, but I'm not hopeful of getting anything more than a handshake and a 'thanks for coming'.
Watch this great video of Dr Richard Pike discussing that there is twice as much oil in the ground as claimed by major producers. And now while I'm at it, the stone age ended because we managed to master metals. IOW, we found something better. Not only that, but the transition from stones to metals was probably rather smooth since the stone tools could be used over and over and fancy new metal tools were just an addition to the existing stone tool supply. Energy, OTOH, cannot be used over and over- we depend on a massive amount to be available for immediate consumption each day and once we use it, it is gone, "poof".
New day, new supply. We rely on a diminishing fossil resource to give us that supply, and the rate at which we can extract it is declining. The comparison to stones in the stone age is very poor and I wish people would stop using it. I read in my archaeology lessons, that at least in the UK, high quality flint used in stone axes became harder and more expensive to find towards the end of the stone age.
Quite deep mines were dug with antler axes at a location called 'Grimes Graves' to get to the flint layer. The product was exported widely across Europe. The first metal axes were made of copper, and in many ways these were inferior to flint, very soft and easily blunted. It was only the with the development of bronze that flint was replaced as the primary working material.
Ceremonial stone axes of very high quality continued to be made throughout the bronze age. These two regions were developed by private companies, using the best available technology, with virtually no restrictions on drilling. In , based on HL, Saudi Arabia was at about the same stage of depletion at which Texas peaked, and the world was at about the same stage of depletion at which the North Sea peaked. In neither case did oil companies stop finding oil fields. The problem is that we have not been able to offset the declines from the older, larger oil fields.
That number translates into years of oil at current rates of consumption, or to put it anther way, the world has only consumed about 18 percent of its conventional oil potential. Regarding oil prices, it's very simple. Importers are bidding for declining oil exports, and our model and recent data suggest that the net oil export decline rate is accelerating.
CPSR--Cornucopian Primal Scream Response, as cornucopians scream that there must be some way, somehow that we can maintain an infinite rate of increase in our consumption of a finite energy resource base; in effect, all that people want is an infinite supply of cheap energy. The Titanic Analogy--After the ship hit the iceberg, two types of passengers, those who realized that the ship would sink and those who would realize that they ship would sink; some of them realized it as they were drowning or dying from hypothermia.
Two types of Americans, those who now realize that we live in a finite world, and those who will realize that we live in a finite world although in a lot of cases, they may be unable to acknowledge that a finite world has finite limits. Given enough warning some of the men who would not have been allowed on the life rafts anyway could have jumped onto the iceberg as it drifted by Agreed - supply and demand should dictate the price and that the price should be higher.
The housing bubble was the same - not enough houses Strictly speaking, supply and demand--what consumers are willing and able to buy--are generally in a rough equilibrium. And it only takes a small decline in net oil exports to cause a large move in oil prices. The problem is that we have been expecting, and we are currently seeing, an accelerating net export decline rate.
For a number of reasons, this will almost certainly require an accelerating rate of increase in oil prices--especially as forced energy conservation moves up the food chain. The price will rise as much is needed to balance demand and supply. A rise in prices will not easily destruct demand for oil. Shargash, do you have a source for this? I've spent hours looking for it on previous occasions. The price has to rise enough that people change their behavior, and businesses that consume oil go out of business.
Everyone is trying to outbid everyone else to try to avoid being one of the triage victims. Unless we can get government to perform the triage, the pricing mechanism will do the dirty work. The huge price increases in the UK housing market was to a large extent predicated on the assumption that demand due to cheap money completely outstripped supply.
The market was vastly overvalued since the media, and indeed the government suggested this was the case for a number of reasons including higher than expected rates of migrant workers. People lost sight of the underlying value, so yes - not enough houses! No just too many stupid people over here in the UK who have believed you can have something for nothing. I would like to point out a small difference between markets like the housing market and the energy market that seems to be evading some people like my fellow newbie, Colin.
Many commodities not including food can be recycled or reused after they have been bought and used by their first purchaser. One can cite many examples of this:. In the above cases the non energy portion of the product can be used over and over again for a considerable length of time by significant numbers of people. Energy on the other hand is transient, you use it it is all gone. The little energy that can be recycled such as done in a combined cycle gas turbine electricity generator , is just as transient.
So when one buys a bicycle, one can use it till its all worn out, while when buys a gallon of gas and drives miles Hummer vs. Prius , that's it, one gallon gone. An important distinction between the market for houses and the market for oil; Both oil and housing are finite resources. Housing can be reused, oil can not. Of course, there is no dispute that oil cannot be reused except, I suppose, some plastics. The parrallel with housing is to demonstrate that markets can be hugely over valued. Similarly, the discourse about the stone age is about alternatives Your choice of words: Supply and demand are not single quantities.
They are 1D curves in 2D space. Get thee to an intro to microeconomics textbook. That depends upon the elasticity of what you're talking about. The same increase may kill none of the demand. First, you take any random assessment without gauging the quality of the assessment and then ask why we don't all believe that 4 trillion barrel BS?
A better question is why we should believe that estimate? Have you evaluated the errors made by the USGS consistently over the last 20 years? Have you evaluated the USGS's 30 year estimate from the s of oil to be found by ? Guess what, the oil predicted to be found in the first third of that period turns out to have been way too optimistic.
Are even aware that global discoveries not production, so don't give me environmentalist excuses!! Are you aware that globally in the s we found 8 barrels for every barrel consumed but today we consume 6 barrels for every new one discovered? Then you try extrapolate prices linearly. Do you even understand price elasticity? And that oil has a very low elasticity thus requiring nearly exponential increases in prices to achieve linear changes in consumption?
It would be in your best interests to critically evaluate all such claims yourself. Everyone I know who has looked at the oil problem with an open mind, people as different as Bill Clinton and Glenn Beck, have agreed that there is a supply-demand issue and that it is growing. Everyone who has examined this realizes that it's time to begin the move away from fossil fuels. The marketplace is telling you to move away from fossil fuels. There is also very little speculation in the oil market since all that oil has to be physically delivered at the end of each contract month. I strongly suggest you really investigate the physical data, which is available, for discovery and production over the last 50 years.
And there are real solutions, if we would get off our fat rear ends and move on them. If you ask people around here, I'm a "doomer" and expect serious social upheaval. Not because we lack ways to mitigate this crisis but because of empty suits who keep us from ever beginning to mitigate this crisis. We have the technology. We lack the political will. Speculators trade contracts before they are delivered so have the net effect of driving up the actual price without having to physically take delivery of the oil. To re-iterate an earlier point, yes oil should cost more for all the good reasons made by people far cleverer than me on this forum - flow, EROEI etc.
Do investment banks use oil? Colin - if you think this through you'd recognize where you have missed the obvious. If a speculator trades a contract just before the end date to avoid taking delivery, who is buying that contract? How is the price set? How much would you pay for a contract about to close? As for your quote, some prof providing unsubstantiated estimates of the size of the impact of speculators proves absolutely nothing. Another point that is often overlooked is that oil has been under priced historically. The mindset of most people has and is that there are these trillions of barrels of oil and we can go on slurping the stuff up indefinitely.
I thin the market is just re-pricing oil to reflect its true nature - high energy density compared to almost all other sources and its scarcity. Reserves are not at all that important. It's flow rates that determine production. Obviously syntetic crude from tar sands for example, has a very slow extraction rate. Furthermore, how much energy best expressed in BTU's so one can compare one source of energy with another is needed to harvest a resource.
See for example http: We can have 4. Also, note that technology is not the same as, and is NOT interchangeble with, energy, i. Note that I'm not an oil industry insider, nor a professional scientist. I'm just a working class hero worried about the future of himself and his kids. As Nate Hagens correctly stated, I'm one of those who is seeking a comparitative advantage. If you get a chance - and have the time - I would suggest reading Kenneth Deffeyes' books on Hubbert's Peak. In particular, the part on the probability of finding a field of oil vs.
His books are written in easy to read style, with bits of humor thrown in. In short, we found all or pretty much most of the large fields. As you get to the remaining smaller fields you are basically to drill spending as much as on a big field as you are on a smaller one but only to find less oil.
Eventually, you're going to get to fields where the oil recovered isn't going to cover 1 the expenses, and then it won't 2 cover the energy that you used to drill for that oil. For all practical purposes, even if we had over - or even 1, -trillion barrels of oil down below the ground, unless we see a REALLY significant advance in technology, it's all unrecoverable as we approach the smaller-sized fields. Flow rates, however, have not increased nearly as quickly: Resources matter, certainly - you can't produce oil that's not there - but, as you say, it's far from the only consideration.
Recovery rate does appear to be increasing, albeit slowly. There was some discussion about that here. Methinks we are getting a lot more "newbies" on this board who are testing their ideas. He is directing them to this site as a source of good information on the subject. We've just been waiting patiently for effects to appear. That's why 20 years ago we bought acreage with good water. Methinks the two are not newbies. They came with agenda in hand. That is, trolling ain't just for fishermen anymore.
Yeah, "start of a good debate", like the one over evolution. Have fun with that "debate" and let me know when any of them are "settled". The planet, meanwhile, is indifferent. In the comments section, two out of the first five comments mentioned Peak Oil. People are beginning to see that this is a greater threat than striking workers. I think we may be getting somewhere! I raised my eyebrows.
I'd had my share of ignorance for one day, and my nerves were frayed. Besides, he was the only customer in the store, so I had time to chat. Constitution gives us the right ta bear arms. I counted out his change diligently. I mean, who are you going after, exactly? They screw us all and don't think twice about it. I gave a crooked smile. It might feel good at the time, but then what? The man gave me a wounded look, ducked his head, and fairly flew out the door to the haven of his truck.
This job is going to get more and more interesting in the times to come , I thought grimly. Note the comment, linked uptop, from the IEA about releasing oil from emergency reserves. Of course, my prediction was more specific--before Labor Day, we will hear calls to release oil from the SPR, specifically because of supply problems on the Gulf Coast.
Does anyone know what the max possible flow rate from the SPR is? Not that I'm advocating, I would just like to know. Should the President order an emergency sale of Strategic Petroleum Reserve oil, DOE can conduct a competition, select offers, award contracts, and be prepared to begin deliveries of oil into the marketplace within 13 days.
Oil can be pumped from the Reserve at a maximum rate of 4. At 1 million barrels per day, the Reserve can release oil into the market continuously for nearly a year-and-a-half. The million barrels in the SPR, if not rationed and instead used at normal rates of 21 mbpd, would last 33 days, just barely over one month. Feed that to your customer next time he pokes his head in. Or, if we just replace all US imports with the SPR mbpd , it would last all of about 50 days, still not a full two months.
People don't like hearing that but people don't realize how much oil this country sucks down every day. Ain't that the truth! When I tell most folks the numbers, their eyes kinda glaze over, like I'm trying to make them do calculus or something because the numbers are beyond their grasp. It's like their rational mind shuts down and they retreat to their Happy Place. You working where you do is very close to where the pain is felt. I very much enjoy you sharing what people tell you. Please don't get someone T'd off at you and do something crazy. Folk's emotions are about to go vertical.
As I've said before, I've got a million of 'em -- the problem is trying to find time to write 'em down: Yes, please do as we don't seem to have any sociologists conducting the sorts of field work you experience at your job daily. I can surely understand that, but I must echo what was said above. Your observations really fill a gap in the reportage as well as being quite nicely written. I hope you can find time to send a few more our way, as time allows We tend to get plenty of virtual reality in our diets, but not nearly enough actual reality.
Might I suggest starting a free blog at a place like Wordpress and taking a laptop to work with you? Even if you just jot things down in your spare time, then post to the blog when you get home. Insights from 'Ground Zero' are always welcome and appreciated. Interesting that the head of the IEA has already brought up the possibility of releasing reserves. Ah, that great scene from The Battle of the Bulge where the SS tank commander tries to capture the fuel depot and the injured Henry Fonda and pals roll the gas drums at him and he explodes in a massive fireball.
The Panzer Song scene is one of the great pieces of cinematography of all time: Am expecting curbs on demand in OECD within hours-days. On the surface, shouldn't this lead to a huge expansion in contango? Maybe not initially, but after the consequences sink in to the market? The iea has the ability to release 11mbpd on to the market, within about 4 US to 7 days notification. The us spr is designed to release 4. GWB will think up a reason not peak oil to release oil from the spr, perhaps a high breeze in the GOM, the oil will start to flow in the late summer or early fall, the economic bump will be in full swing by early November, GWB will say all is well, McCain will start singing "happy days are here again".
The run up to the election will be the last blow out of the cheap oil era, the post election hangover will be a duzey. I doubt there's enough refinery capacity to turn any released SPR oil into an economic stimulus package. Add any hurricane-caused outage, and any effect of an SPR release will be nil. No, there is no cavalry that can ride to the rescue; the lead time is far too long and the supply needed far too great. My brother and I have discussed this possibility more than once. As people get more desperate, some are likely to come unhinged Now these unhinged people - how can one point them in a direction AWAY from onesself and towards someone else?
Or, one could take a lesson from the MSM For instance, point at someone else and yell, "It's his fault! Here's another drop in the bucket of things that can help mitigate FF depletion, picked up on slashdot. Say Goodbye to Wimpy Paper. In addition to improving paper products directly, the new cellulose nanofibers could help create reinforced plastic composites cheaper than those reinforced by carbon fibers, the researchers say.
Here's to hoping that this stuff will make affordable, lighter, more efficient transportation that much more possible: Every Republican so far has emphasized only that we need to be allowed to drill and explore shale, offshore, etc.. The Dems are likewise, barely able to reach the unhappy conclusion that the word "Less" is going to be fundamental to finding a way forward. Please watch and share your views here. I still don't know how to answer the 'offshore' claims.
What are the reserves considered to be out there? Adam Sieminski of DeutsheBank and Rep. They are bickering over the change under the sofa cushions, oblivious to the fact that the last robust paycheck was cashed 3 decades ago.. The pipeline would then start to deteriorate from lack of use and if we wanted to access the ANWR oil in the "future" we would not be able to afford to build a new pipeline, so the ANWR would all be stranded oil. ANWR won't solve our oil problems, but it might make the slide down the hill a little gentler and safer?
Sorry about the mis-spellings. Spell Checker is a bit on the fritz - Some crazy biodieseler stole the oil for the fries to power the spell checker Big Grin. Some months after we start producing natural gas from Prudhoe Bay, instead of reinjecting it, oil production will stop. Also, the tribal lands to the east. After "enough" oil has been produced, NG is produced "blowing the gas cap" and rapidly reducing oil production not counting NGLs produced with NG as pressure drops.
It seems reasonable that reducing pressure would rapidly reduced residual oil production. The Alaskan RR goes to Anchorage already. Alas, it's behind a paywall. Police question Netanyahu's wife on spending Children's doctor is suspended from her job after she said Michelle Obama had a 'monkey face' and couldn't speak English properly Iniesta key for Barcelona in 'clasico' against Madrid HARK, this angel is singing her heart out! Australian acts Bernard Fanning and Sarah Blasko sign on to David Bowie tribute concert series as it's set to hit Sydney Nation's largest solar installer to open Florida facility Giant of African art Ousmane Sow dies at 81 Paris opens new-style reception centre to help solve migrants crisis 'I can't stand it': Men reveal their girlfriends' most annoying habits from singing badly to leaving the shower curtain open so how many are YOU guilty of?
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Can my employer fire me for legally using marijuana? Jai Courtney cuts a dapper figure in chequered jacket as he takes to the red carpet for Man Down premiere in Los Angeles 'It's like a permanent field trip': Wannabe gangster gets eight years jail for killing his friend - as they posed for photos with a loaded gun A curly fringe and piercing blue eyes: The s magazine cover that launched Nicole Kidman's career revealed Erin McNaught shows off rock-hard abs and toned thighs in barely-there bikini Lee Elliott flaunts his abs on a shirtless run Washington pays tribute to slain police officer as cops shoot dead suspect following an hour hostage situation HK stocks rise after OPEC output cut; China bounces on solid PMI Wife of ISIS recruiter who refused to remove her veil in court claims police wanted to 'see her NAKED' during raids on her home Heroin addict who raped, tortured and killed his girlfriend's three-year-old daughter after she refused to call him Daddy faces the death penalty Lindsay Lohan laments wrinkles and gravity taking over her 'upper half' in topless selfie Tickets for SECOND Adele shows start selling in Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne - after tech bungle saw thousands miss out Help meow-t!
Magda Szubanski lashes out at MP George Christensen after he poses in bizarre photo shoot holding a leather whip No plus one needed! Solange Knowles wraps up in bizarre gown as she attends Jazz opening in New York 'I kind of enjoy firing people': Proud mum Terri Irwin gushes about her son Robert's similarities to late husband Steve Australian model appears looking VERY thin in backstage photos China hikes tax on "super cars" amid luxury crackdown You won't get many logs out of that!
Hilarious moment a beaver browses the aisles of a dollar store looking at artificial Christmas trees Baseball-Tentative contract agreed by MLB players, owners Forget running, it's all about the weights! Fitness guru and bikini model reveals she does NO cardio - and says she's able to control her body fat using only her diet Shamoon virus returns in new Saudi attacks after 4-year hiatus Feeling nippy? Preschool BANS toddler from wearing his monster print leggings because they frightened a little girl 'A bunch of bong-sniffing, dole-bludging, moss-munching K-Mart Castros': A senator's epic rant about Parliament House protesters who glued their hands to the public gallery 'Rich white kids from Europe picking Australia's fruit': Sunrise host Samantha Armytage seen with a pearl sparkler on her ring finger Angry protests erupt in Charlotte as black police officer who shot Keith Lamont Scott is cleared of his murder Police officer shot in Washington state dies at hospital Shanghai copper rises on the back of oil rally 'Why do all women in their 40s look like kegs with legs?
China factory activity rises to 2-year high You otter be celebrating! Sofia Richie hugs mystery man at favoured restaurant as model continues to move past Bieber Time to eat! Bella Hadid heads out for burgers in a mini-dress and fur coat after closing out VS Fashion Show China party warns against "pomp" as it tightens rules in graft fight No shades but Woods 'ready' for long-awaited comeback Put it away Love! Emily Ratajkowski slams photographer for publishing naked photos from shoot without her permission Kyle Sandilands impresses Guy Sebastian with his singing Karolina Kurkova wears bizarre cutaway top with sheer harem trousers as she goes genie chic for Art Basel party in Miami A vision in white!
Etiquette expert on how to pick the perfect gifts for your colleagues this Christmas Not on the ropes! Leonard Lewis, who launched Twiggy's career by creating her radical crop, and saw to the tresses of Liza Minelli dies at 78 Conte's high-flying Chelsea face tough test at Man City Japan orders chicken cull on third bird flu outbreak in less than a week Shark bites year-old surfer off Australian east coast Great news for chocoholics! Portuguese dancer girlfriend of Pasquale Barbaro bombarded with menacing threats and porn photos in days after his slaying Abortion rights advocates challenge restrictions in three U.
Alex Nation says reports she dumped her disabled ex-boyfriend to appear on The Bachelor broke her heart Alex Nation speaks about her relationship with ex-husband Joel Porter… after reports of tension with his family From diving with sharks to sleeping with polar bears: Jennifer Lawrence, 26, sparks engagement rumours with new ring as romance with Darren Aronofsky, 47, heats up Kyle Richards wraps up warm in cosy jumper and fringed brown boots as she gets ready for Christmas Friends with benefits! Jennifer Aniston admits joining the mile high club on Ellen Korea Nov exports to China, U.
Josephine Skriver sizzles as she flaunts her cleavage in extreme plunging thigh-high split gown as she joins fellow Victoria's Secret models for after-party 'There was kissing on the lips':
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